The arrival of the latest addition to the Royal Family got me thinking about a probability problem which is quite straightforward on the face of it but which most people get wrong: A pregnant woman attends for her routine ultrasound scan, and the sonographer diagnoses twins, telling her that one of them is certainly a … Continue reading It’s a boy! Probably.
I once had a rather odd conversation with a patient, which went something like this: "Tell me, Doc, how long have I got left?" "I can't really give you a very good answer to that." "Well, put it this way: Do you think I will last the Summer?" "Yes, I think there's a reasonably good … Continue reading How long have I got, Doc?